二浪法的3-4-5浪结构

N的CD浪，如果出现暴跌的情况，则就开始了3-4-5浪。暴跌之后几乎必然的形成一个三角或四方整理的4浪，三角整理完一般会向下一个短暂而剧烈的5浪，但是注意的是以后的反弹也是剧烈的一般会回到三角整理的位置。所以一般来说三角型突破下跌的块上的也块。5浪的长度一般是三角整理的高度。
因此此轮下跌的幅度用三角突破法计算：为87-（100-75）=61
用N的3波的跌幅为一波幅度的1.6：66， 2：61
用3波下跌中，小三角型整理是下跌的一半也就是前底是下跌过程一半方法计算：76-（87-76）=65
因此大跌之后不适合buy and hold，逢低吸逢高short

时间上1-3浪相当，而2,4 浪以长一短。 2-4总和约为3浪的长度. 5浪时间只有1浪的一半
如：2007-10-12 到2008-3-16的三浪下跌时间为
1：46 2：15 3：42 4：36 5：19
而2008-5 到2008-11
1：56 2：50 3：54 4：8：17 （该次4浪被madoff事件打断，只有a浪，因此说明stop的重要性）

而三浪如果没有出现暴跌的情况，则4-5浪就不会出现。

终结三角型

上升三角是上升驱动浪的一种形式，相对应的下跌三角型是下跌的驱动浪，因为第一浪和三浪都不存在形态，因此终结三角型只能是第五浪，因此它是常见而且非常可靠的终结形态。它存在两种突破形式一种是同方向突破，这种突破一般是剧烈的，但不会长久，往往会被迅速拉回完成翻转，另外更常见是是如上面图形所示直接翻转

二浪法在分钟图上的应用

海边玩人的总结

A、如何判断大势？

1、基本面，良性或恶性循环条件的量变到质变，决定大势。
　　杰西•利弗莫尔说：
　　要做到这一点你必须研究市场总的情况。市场的拐点 ---- 市场总的情况开始翻转。
　　美国现在处于熊市，是否到底了？先看一下恶性循环是什么：美国第一波金融风暴是由于房价的连续上涨导致过度贷款过度消费，又由于房价的下跌导致房主弃房和银行坏账。所以恶性循环是：房价下跌==>弃房==>房价更下跌，结果是银行坏账和倒闭。
　　美国第二波金融风暴的恶性循环是：
　　银行坏账==>银根紧缩==>需求减少==>实体工业定单减少==>裁员滚滚==>弃房==>房价下跌......
　　从裁员和房价还在下跌，可以知道，底还没有到。
　　那么，那匹编号为O8的马，是否能扭转乾坤？
　　从最近的作为看，O8马是，说起来头头是道，做起来漏洞百出。
　　他最新的防止房主弃房（FORECLOSURE）的方法，人为的不让弃房，防止房价继续下滑， 不仅让人想起，灾区缺粮时严打屯粮涨价的做法，结果是没人运粮进灾区。O8马的新方法，只能造成新的一波过度贷款过度消费，只是这次的冤大头不是银行而是政府。
　　新的良性循环的产生，必须在恶性循环走到尽头，在房价下跌到足够低时，有人抄底，逐渐的让房价回暖。O8马的拔苗助长方法，只能让恶性循环的周期延长，拖长和加重危机，越救越糟。
　　现在只有一招：使劲印钱。所以危机的最后阶段，一定是美元危机、通胀。只有经历了通胀的恐慌后，底才出现。
　　现在大势仍然是熊市。监视房价和企业业绩，决定什么时间总的情况开始翻转。

2、波浪理论，推动浪决定趋势方向。
　　如何判断是推动浪还是回撤浪？
　　回撤浪一般吃掉前浪的38.2%。如果是25%，则为弱回撤，50%为强回撤，61.8%则到了临界点，超过61.8%，到达100%甚至161.8%、200%，则为推动浪。
　　美股大盘一月初的连续下跌，是方向朝下的推动浪（5-1浪），表明仍然处于熊市。

3、道氏理论，趋势通道决定趋势方向。　　
　　长趋势决定大势方向。连接最近一个月以上的收盘价最高和最低点（至少三点以上），形成趋势通道，决定做多还是做空。
　　美股大盘长趋势为熊市。

4、金叉理论，金叉角度决定趋势方向。
　　在六个月以上股价图上，KDJ（15-5）和EMA（21-7）交叉后的方向，指明大势方向。
　　S & P 500最近的KDJ和EMA都指向下跌，大势为熊市。

B、如何判断市场波动节奏？
　　市场波动节奏，可以从股票价格图上数出。趋势一般分为：
　　超短趋势，一般1-3天；
　　短趋势，一般7天；推动浪长些，回撤浪短些。
　　中趋势，一般21天；
　　长趋势，一般49天。
参考波浪图。周一应该是个拐点，然后五天左右反弹。

C、如何从价格运动读懂市场信息？
1、波浪理论，判断是推动浪还是回撤浪。
2、蜡烛形态。
3、盘整理论。
4、金叉理论，KDJ（15-5）和EMA（21-7）金叉。

炒股纪律
1、从价格图读出市场信息，而不是相信高手的意见。
2、看准了才动手。不懂时持币等待，宁可失去无数的机会。
3、赚大钱在大波动。管住手，不要试图抓住所有的小波动。
4、从容操作。遵循冷静分析的计划，而不是来自价格变动的冲动。
5、资金安全第一。买入前需要明确止损点。

时间来帮助鉴别二波法中的整理浪和驱动浪

从上面可以看出，如果连续上涨或下跌5天时要设置比较近的止损，保持最大的利润。
　　市场波动节奏，可以从股票价格图上数出。趋势一般分为：
　　超短趋势，一般1-3天；
　　短趋势，一般7天；推动浪长些，回撤浪短些。
　　中趋势，一般21天；
　　长趋势，一般49天。

二波法预测股市的点位和走势

二浪法的核心时顺势而为，让第一波自己走出来，也就是放弃找顶和低，主推浪决定大市方向，而调整浪，决定第二波走势的大小

大盘转折部的走势-二波法的解释

大盘在做顶部时候，经常先出现疲态，在一个区域内反复震荡，但根据二波理论，这是修正浪，经常有最后一波很强的推动浪，也就是常说的short squeeze，来测试买盘，并去掉shorter.
大盘要决定向下时候，一般是毫不迟疑，不回调的破掉趋势线，并连续下跌4-5天以上。如果在趋势线附近震荡犹豫不决或是明显的三角整理形态，说明这是一个回调，大盘还会继续向上。
所以说大盘的顶部几乎必然是M头或的SHS.只有少数情况下是园顶。因此除了园底和园顶,大盘的转折必然是以推动浪对推动浪。这就是四天法则的由来

二浪法的精髓是放弃猜测第一小驱动浪，根据第一驱动浪的走势来预测第三浪。同级浪的转换，即一轮大的驱动浪，转换成一轮同级的调整浪（或调整浪到驱动浪），是通过更小一级的驱动浪来完成的。即前一浪的最后一个驱动浪是5天左右，如果是转到下一级的大浪也必须是5天相反的驱动浪。


　　市场波动节奏，可以从股票价格图上数出。趋势一般分为：
　　超短趋势，一般1-3天；
　　短趋势，一般7天；推动浪长些，回撤浪短些。
　　中趋势，一般21天；
　　长趋势，一般49天。

一种特殊情况，上升三角也是推动浪的一种，因此会出现终结三角的形态。但下跌三角，是整理形态，极少出现转势的情况，会又最后一个推动浪b


二浪法看大盘的转势过程


以下图形显示如果根据二浪法进行操作，并估测目标点位

二波法或N波法的应用实例

二波法或N波法

二波法或N swing是一种更通用的波浪理论，更加适用.类似有速度线，它假设的前提是市场沿着一定的速度下跌或上涨，一个N型完成一个震荡。有时候下跌的速度比较均匀，沿着速度线，则没有产生swing.这个时候就没有波浪。如熊市的向上修正波。2008-5-30开始的下跌都没有产生swing，沿着速度线均匀下跌。
通常5 波的波浪理论，是考虑到3波的速度过快，4-5波都是修正过快的3波。参考图形
反之如果3浪的下跌是均匀的，则不会产出明显的4-5swing浪而直接到达N的另一目标。因此比较好的画波方法是只画N型或二波到5波的目标，3-4-5波是走出来的，是无法被预测的

在操作上，由于3浪后的4调整浪异常复杂，不易进行趋势交易，可以逢高short。

根据融易通观点，调整浪前面，后面必须时推动浪，因此正确辨别调整浪时二波法的关键。而且3浪升幅时一浪的1.6倍左右，或者通过连接调整浪中心的方法预测目标价位

ISEE put/call divergence

2-18-2008 ISEE bullish, while CPC bearish. second day drop

pro gap and novice gap

Price gaps in markets are events that successful traders understand very well. This is because when you really understand gaps - why they occur, and how to trade them - you realize how powerful and opportunistic these events really are. Gaps represent the ultimate supply and demand imbalance, which is key when attempting to identify market turning points. Whether we are talking about Stocks, Futures, Forex, or Options, the logic and rules for gaps don’t change.

Gaps occur when there is a supply and demand imbalance. Specifically, when there is more demand than supply at the prior day’s closing price, the market will gap higher the following day. When supply exceeds demand at the prior day’s closing price, the market will gap down the following day. Let’s take gaps a little bit deeper and dive into part of a lesson from the Extended Learning Track (XLT).

While we have a big lesson on gaps in the XLT that covers all the significant gap opportunities, today I will share one set of gaps that you may want to pay attention to, Professional Gaps versus Novice Gaps. Later in this piece, I will explain where these gaps get their names from. For now, here are the definitions and proper actions.

Professional Gap: A gap that occurs after a move in price, in the opposite direction of that move. These gaps occur at the beginning of moves and ignite them.

Professional Gap High Probability Action: Join the gap on a pullback in price to the origin of the gap so long as the opportunity has a significant profit margin.

Novice Gap: A gap that occurs after a move in price, in the direction of that move. These gaps tend to be found at the end of moves and lead to reversals.

Novice Gap High Probability Action: Fade the gap when price reaches a support or resistance level so long as there is a significant profit margin.

Figure 1: S&P Chart
Above is a chart of the S&P. Identified by the grey shaded areas are a Professional Gap and a Novice Gap. As you can see, the Pro Gap is after a big rally in price, in the opposite direction of that rally. This gap ignites the move lower in price. After the gap open to the downside, often price will quickly rally and fill the gap and then proceed lower. The astute trader can look to sell short near the origin of the gap as that is the low risk / higher reward way to join that gap down in price.

Lower on the chart, we have the Novice Gap. This one is a gap down in price, after a decline in price. We call this a novice gap because someone is selling AFTER a decline in price and DURING a gap down. This combination is a very novice move and typically leads to losses for the seller (and gains for the buyer). The proper action on a novice gap down is to first identify the nearest support level and look to fade this gap down with a long position. This is the low risk / higher reward trading idea with the presence of a novice gap.

There are other types of gaps to consider when trading the open of a market. Typically, it is at the open of a market that prices are at levels where supply and demand are most out of balance. I witnessed and facilitated this for a long time handling institutional order flow at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Translating these areas of imbalance onto a price chart helps attain an edge over your competition. Only put your money at risk when the odds are stacked in your favor and the risk is low, which means identifying novice action in a market and taking the other side of the novice’s trade.

Lastly, trading the open of a market is not for a beginner or novice trader. However, once you have attained the ability to quantify demand and supply in any market and any time frame, you are likely to find trading the open a very opportunistic time to trade.

Have a great day.

SPY GAP DOWN >2%

除了一次外，其他都在3日内补掉。
10/6/2008未能补掉，是因为下面没有任何近期的支撑。这次gap down，下面有740支撑，因此补掉的可能很大

QQQ view and GAP DOWN

BMW:
这种gap down 常见的几种情况
1，consolidation-- bear flag 撞线继续， 下破798
2，sharp reversal -- gap fill-- pull back--再涨
3，开盘继续跌，11点开始回测813或808
OE week
you need confirmation of breakdown first.
OE week reversal 还是很常见的. 一般是周二或周三
如果周三close 前还没有reversal sign, 估计周四周五会很bloody, due to delta neutral effect
I tend to believe we will have a positive week, but for this market I will stay short term

QQQ:
Current future mkt:
SPX future is trading at 806, down about 20 points
DOW future is trading at 7675, down about 200 points
NDX future is trading at 1206, down about 30 points

If the situation does not gets better, we are looking at about 15-20 points close to 810-805 range open for cash SPX.

Again 800-805 SPX has been held a few times as you can see the chart, unless Future mkt decisively break down 800, 800 line will still be the battle field for bulls and bears.

So how to deal with this:

First, do not panic, second, do not greedy

There are 2 possible cases after open with such gap:

(1) Gap down, after 30-60 minutes consilidation with light volume, and not so bad breadth. Buyers decide to rush in buy at this point, and then mkt reversal to 820-835 area.
In this case, means buyers need step in to save this mkt, then at certain threashhold, force bears to cover. This case had happened past 3 times when mkt reach to this area. so should that happen again? Be prepared it might happen again.

(2) Gap down, no strong buyers to show up, mkt goes sideways till lunch with horrible breadth while resting, then decisively go lower break down.

Both cases are NOT too difficult to tell, within first 30-60 minutes of trading we should see mkt action proves itself.

If you are holding long positions, do not panic, wait for ~30 minutes to see how price, volume develope on your holdings, then decide which case is on your holding, then decide what to do.

If you are holding short positions, be ready to cover around 10am if you see case (1) is developing, in BOTH cases, You need to put stops in, or at least have trailing stops in, just in case this is a false break down.

IF you are holding cash, don't think you missed anything, be patient, let mkt decide which way it DECISIVELY goes before jump in. Remember once you jump in, have stops in place.


there is a way to detect if mkt will have a reversal or not:

Look for DIVERGENT LOW, if that happens tomorrow or wednesday, cover 75% shorts and enter 25% long. when confirmation comes, cover rest 25% short and add to 50% long.

meow 看大盘crash

目前市場正處在一個十字路口上.今日與師傳一家人飲茶特別向師傳請教了有關目前大部份人傾向Market Crash (600-700)的看法.師傳也講述了他并不認同的理由.Crash1.首要條件Fear,目前市場己Fear了半年多,以BAC為例這次它的下挫并無造成對大盤至命打擊己足可証明投資者己對壞消息适應了,Crash條件2. Margin call.force to sell,半年多來的大市請問各位有誰會用Margin去做Long?己被套牢的Long position又有誰會被Force to sell呢?Crash 3.基金放血,自去年大多投資人己套現做成11月的740低位,失業率一直上升,401K己不再是基金的血庫,己還有工作的人的401K也好不了那里,他們也不會在這個時候去賣掉,所以panic sell一直無出現.所以師傳認為下周應先漲再回調,OE之后Bear一定要非常小心,一定有一個對Bear毀滅性的打擊,至于力度和速度要到時候再觀察現在無法知道,師傳認為下周有可能798-860之間上落 *OE week*假如先去798 short 可以 cover,long 可入點倉,如先上860這才是最頭疼的一種走法,在此先不談大多以免誤道各位,我也會每天調整告訴大家.總之這兩周對接下來二至三個月的走勢會做了斷了, 不少牛牛可翻身了,有cash的朋友也有一個掙不用每日擔京受怕的錢的机會.

OE week prediction

OE 周INDEX 的走向
After traded index options for many years, here is my observation during OE week.

1) check last month settlement prices of SPX DJX RUT OEX and NDX
http://www.cboe.com/data/Settlement.aspx
January 2009 SETTLEMENT VALUES
S&P 100 (OEX):
400.96
S&P 500 (SET):
859.37
VIX Options (VRO):
49.88
Dow Jones (DJS):
83.34
Russell 2000 (RLS):
466.59
NASDAQ 100 (NDS):
1201.54



Monitoring Current price
S&P 100 (OEX):
389.40
S&P 500 (SET):
826.84
VIX Options (VRO):
42.93
Dow Jones (DJS):
78.50
Russell 2000 (RLS):
448.36
NASDAQ 100 (NDS):
1201.54


for example, this month shows a slight bearish bias

2) Check option open interests at each strike prices and see where highest number resides. These are the likely resistance or support.

you can check maximum pain using the following link to see where price will mostly be settled on the expiration day
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php


3) When prior month settlement price is closed to the current price, Index is more likely closed around that price. However, you need to use the information from 2) to support your conclusion.

4) When prior month settlement price is much below the current price, index is more likely going down further during OE week, especially Monday and Tuesday. MM are closing in the money put and have to sell shares you used to hedge the put. This causes index to go down.

5) When prior month settlement price is much higher than the current price, index is more likely going higher during OE week, especially Monday and Tuesday. MM are closing in the money calls and have to buy shares you used to hedge the call. This causes index to go higher.

6) When prior month settlement price is far below or much higher than the current price, index is more likely to reverse that trend during the OE week. MM are probably losing control. They have to reverse the market to limit either bull or bear's profit.

7) Last to remember. In the current market. NEWS is driving everything. There are the scenarios that most likely happens during OE weeks but market has its own mind. Be a chicken, don't be a hero. Hero is always first to die.

3点之后的reveral都是不可信的

check all reveral days since 2008, Is there any day that reversed the short-
term trend from 3:00PM? The reason is simple, the big mutual funds are not
allowed to trade after 3:30PM.
但是11/21/2008，12/15/2008 的翻转是3点
12/15, the low pivot happened on 12/14,
11/21, the low of day is only 60 point lower than previous day, and it
happened on 11:AM, the low on 3:00PM is high than it

开盘预测:一叶知秋

开盘预测:一叶知秋
在《股市预测与实战》一书中，我谈到了用开盘后30分钟走势预测全天行情的理论，经过四年的实践检验，应该说效果是不错的，准确率要超过80%，尤其在一些重要的关键行情中，提前知道全天的走势有利于把握操作的基本思路。为了便于大家掌握，这里再把有关理论简单说一下。开盘后三十分钟历来是多空双方必争的关键时间段，所以这一时间内发生的趋势将决定大盘当天的最终趋势。第一个十分钟由于刚刚开盘，参与交易的股民人数较少，所以多空双方均可用不大的量即可达到预期的目的。第二个十分钟多空双方进入修整期，一般会对原有趋势进行修正，如果空方逼得急，多方一般会采取反攻，若多头冲得迅猛，空头也会迫不及待获利出局。第三个十分钟随着交易的人越来越多，买卖盘变得越来越真实。所以，开盘前三十分钟的走势基本包含了多空双方的最终发展趋势。
为正确把握走势特点，我们以开盘为起始点，以十分钟、二十分钟和三十分钟的点位为移动点连成三条线段，这就包含了一天的未来走势信息。这里需要特别说明的是起始点为开盘点，而不是许多投资者采用的前收盘。若第十分钟的点位高于（低于）开盘点，则为第一次上（下）；若第二个十分钟的点位高于（低于）第一个十分钟的点位，则为第二次上（下）；若第三个十分钟高于（低于）第二个十钟的点位，则为第三次上（下）。
在前三十分钟中，两次以上的上则应收阳线，两次以上的下，则应收阴线。收阳线的可能性为：先上后上再上，先上后上再下，先上后下再上，先下后上再上，收阴线的可能性为：先下后下再下，先下后下再上，先下后上再下，先上后下再下。两次以上的上收阳线概率最大的情况为两次上的幅度较大，下的幅度较小；两次以上的下收阴线概率最大的情况为两次下的幅度较大，上的幅度较小。
但在实际行情中，上述理论模式也有例外的可能性，这需要投资者不要拘泥于形式，而应具体问题具体分析。例如先上后上再上走势一般当天是收阳线，但大约有 10%的情况为空头陷阱，当天反而跌幅很大，甚至以最低点收盘，这要重点看三连上的时候的成交量，如果没有量的配合，甚至越涨量越少，则基本可判断为拉高出货行情。
有时候，前三十分钟有两次以上的上涨，但随后在盘中又创出当天的最低点，这样当天收阳线的概率将大大降低，因为两次上攻所占领的地区被空头轻而易举的夺回，表明空头势力比较强盛，当日收阳线的可能也需大打折扣。
俗话说，一年之计在于春，一天之计在于晨，开盘后前三十分钟的走势实际已经寓含了全天的信息，仔细分析并加以研究，投资者当会有较大的收益。
需说明的一点是，任何投资理论在被大众完全熟悉，并被操盘机构利用的情况下，其准确率将会有所降低。在最近两年行情演变的关键时刻，尤其是1999年 5-6月，有大机构常常利用收盘前最后半小时发力上冲，从而导致当天走势预测失误。通过总结，我们认为，当本方法的预测出现失误增加的时候，往往不是需要修改这个方法的时候，而是要特别警惕其中的人为造市成分有多大，并要注意大盘随时可能见顶回落，或者如果在底部出现，则是机构故意打压建仓，底部可能将来临。比如在底部明明应该收阳线，却往往有人故意在收盘前最后30分钟将盘子打下来，这是一种典型的收集手法，只要注意领跌的品种是不是大盘股就可以了，如果是大盘指标股，则应当心底部近在眼前。还有的在底部明明应该收阴线，但突然在收盘前被巨量拉起来，其中有机构建仓不顾一切的含义，另外也有机构护盘造好，为发动行情进行技术指标准备的含义。在高处出现这种情况则只要反思一下就可以了。
在实践中我们还发现了有关开盘后60分钟走势的一些规律：
每个星期一的开盘后60分钟的K线如果是阳线，则本周的周线基本上就将以阳线报收；每个星期一的开盘后60分钟的K线如果是阴线，则本周的周线基本上就将以阴线报收；如果这60分钟的K线趋势不明朗，则要分析在过去的60分钟里的多空双方的力量对比，如果多头占优势，则周线可能收阳线，如果空头占优，则周线可能收阴线。但例外的是：如果这个周将形成头部或者底部的转折，则60分钟的走势未必能反映一周的行情。
理论分析：如果说开盘后20-30分钟的走势已经是多空双方力量的真实对比，那么，30-60分钟的走势就足以对前面10-20分钟走势进行彻底修复，如果是前面是空头过度，那么多头在这30-60分钟里就有了足够的资格来反击，而且反击会比较成功。由于是周一，多空双方的行动都经过了深思熟虑，到60分钟结束的时候，就已经基本上勾画出了未来5天的全部走势。但如果是在底部，则多方信心接近崩溃，所以前60分钟应该是欲振乏力，看起来一周走势必然不好，但所有的行情都是在最黑暗的时候产生的。因此，在行情的转折时期，是允许上述理论失误的。
应用法则：在大趋势确认后，可以用本理论来指导自己在未来一周的操作策略，在接近行情转折的高点或者低点的时候，则可以反向运用，或者暂时不用。就目前来说，一些重要的转折，神光已经有能力预测出来了

长下影，或长上影的意义

看日线或分钟线图的时候，经常出现一些长长的spike。这些spike是交易量很小的价格。
往往出现在开盘混乱恐慌的时候，触发了MM的一些protection单子。往往代表着MM真实走势，譬如一个长下影，往往2-5天内会价格下跌到那个价位。
2-5-2009 77.5的spike，代表下周非常可能下跌到77.5以下。

以开盘情况预测当天走势的方法

曾有资深交易员将开盘的情况归纳为10种形态，作为对行情研判的参考。此10种开盘形态总结如下：
（1）瞬间高盘：股价高开后迅速下滑。高档卖压不轻，当天下跌可能性大。特别在行情已持续上涨一段时间后，瞬间高盘预示行情续涨无力。但在下跌行情中，表示买盘已渐介入。
（2）瞬间低盘：股价低开后迅速上扬。表示抵挡买盘积极，当天上涨可能性大。在行情已持续上涨一段时间后，出现瞬间低盘时，除非次日能高盘开出，否则代表续涨乏力，有做顶可能。下跌行情中出现瞬间低盘，表示买盘已渐介入。
（3）震荡高盘：股价高开后向上走出一个尖顶后走低。出现震荡高盘时，当天可能会有两个波段的振动，造成短线操作的机会。震荡高盘后第一次上涨波高点附近可能是较好的DT卖出点。
（4）震荡低盘：股价低开后向下走了一个V字后走高。出现震荡低盘时，当天可能会有两个波段的振动，造成短线操作的机会。震荡高盘后第一次下跌波低点附近可能是较好的DT买入点。
（5）创新高盘：开盘后股价很快超过昨日最高价。如成交量配合则说明买方气势很强，应考虑买入。但如成交量不配合，表示追价买盘不足，收盘前有可能会出现杀尾盘的现象，宜卖出。
（6）创新低盘：开盘后股价跌破超过昨日最低价。上涨行情中出现创新低盘预示顶部已近。下跌行情出现创新低盘表示行情继续，但如跌后回稳上涨超过昨收盘价时，则有利于买方。
（7）反向高盘：昨天长阴下跌，今天跳高开盘。一般应考虑买进。但如出现在长期上涨行情之后，则应在反弹后趁高卖出。
（8）反向低盘：昨天长阳上涨，今天跳低开盘。一般应考虑卖出。但如出现在长期下跌行情之后，则应在跳低时买进。
（9）同向高盘：昨天长阳上涨，今天跳高开盘。连续上涨后的同向高盘，一般应考虑短线先予获利了结。
（10）同向低盘：昨天长阴下跌，今天跳低开盘。连续下跌后的同向低盘，可考虑短线买进，赚取当日冲销差价。

今天开盘前看到noname6688兄弟说LVS被套的帖子，因为我前几天LVS才割肉，同病相怜，因此关注了一下，发现LVS盘前交易价格远远高于昨天收盘价，大有Gap Up的可能。如果是，那么就正好是前述总结的反向高盘的情况，可能是买进机会。可是LVS却低位开盘，但开盘后迅速上涨，由此看来更符合前面总结的瞬间低盘的情况，也是买进的机会。再看成交量。上涨时巨量，回撤时缩量，因此在价格第二次变绿时买入。总算把割肉的损失补回来一些。可惜后来没时间看盘，中午高点没出掉，不知明天会不会还回去。其实熊市上午的涨势很少在下午还能延续。要是听donaldtone的建议加个trailing stop就更完美了。我还是不太习惯DT。

ALL UP DAY

回答几个问题: 最近的几次ALL UP DAY是: 2008/10/20， 2008/11/04， 2008/11/07, 2008/11/28, 2009/01/13, 以前的俺没记日子, 这是这次熊市以来的第11次ALL UP DAY.

俺检查这几样: SPY -- UP, USO -- UP, UUP -- UP, TLT -- UP, GLD --UP

t is very rare that all of them are up. I read on ivyman's hutong9post that such day is always followed by big down in stock market. I amcurious if that is true. Therefore I did a statistic on the historicaldays that SPY, UUP, USO, TLT and GLD were all up. Since 03/01/2007,there were only 10 days that all of them closed up. They and the nextday SPY's change are
Date Next Day SPY (%)
02/05/2009 ?
01/13/2009 -3.15
10/20/2008 -2.98
08/26/2008 +0.97
05/19/2008 -0.81
02/20/2008 -0.84
11/23/2007 -2.20
07/13/2007 -0.01
06/27/2007 -0.01
06/13/2007 +0.64
average -0.64
There are 2 up days and 8 down days and average is -0.64%. Therefore tomorrow has higher probability of going down.

leader stock

大盘的走向要参考leader stocks。如何选择leader stock，可以从Dow成分股中选择。因为DOW是个成分股的价格相加。因此价格越高的比重越大。譬如现在前三名为：
IBM，XOM，CVX 因此石油的价格对大盘走势影响巨大。而EUR对大盘的影响，也是由于EUR对commodity的影响。由于XOM CVX 过高的比重因此大盘与USO EUR相关型很大。
其中IBM走势很强，因此决定了QQQQ科技相关的走势很强。
而fiance的股票都已经比重很小了。因此对大盘的影响比较弱

trade future

Every trader needs to start off as a scalper. A scalper is a trader who expects a move from point A to point B in a relatively straight line. The scalper’s aim is to get in and out with the least amount of wiggles and noises. Scalpers will tend to actually be the most risk-averse because their understanding is that the longer one is in a position, the more risk is inherent in the trade. Therefore, a scalper wants to enter and exit in the shortest time possible. The scalper style is most effective in an environment with high volume and wide channels. Volume gives the scalper liquidity and the opportunity to exit into the buyers on longs and to buy into the sellers on short covering. Scalpers love to play panics and wider-channel trends and ranges. Scalpers will always get out early, which is just an indication of their innate ability to exit without disturbing a stock’s momentum. Scalpers will mainly use the 1-minute and 3-minute charts, with a background view of the 10 or 13-minute charts.

A scalper is an expert at selling into the buyers and buying into the sellers. Excellence of timing and execution is the forte of a good scalpers. Scalpers are either taking profits or trimming losses. When supports overshoot, a scalper will be there to take advantage of the overshoots and scalp out their short covers into the sellers without thinking twice. When a pivot resistance overshoots, a scalper will take that opportunity to sell into the buyers without thinking twice because he knows that the pivot is a resistance and that the result is likely to be a backfill and a short-term peak. Scalpers are aware at all times, and this is their strength. They leave little to chance. This is an absolute foundation that every trader must start off with, for better or worse.

After being successful with scalping, a trader will eventually realize he may have quite a lot of money on the table by getting out on the shorter time frame signals. When the 1-minute stochastic peak, a scalper will take his profits before the inevitable retracement. However, after the retracement, the stock will continue to move with the trend. Eventually, a pure scalper may realize this. He will then try to use his ability to scalp by cashing out the majority of his shares based on a 1-minute chart but keeping a small number of shares to move with the 3-minuter trend, with stops in place if the 3-minute premises warrant it. This way, he gets the immediate gain from the scalp and also gets to take advantage of the trend along the way because he has pared some shares out to lock in profits but also maintained a smaller position for a longer time frame to take advantage of the trend. This trader is now moving to the stage of being a combination trader, which is a trader who can scalp and pare initial gains while riding a smaller number of shares for a larger gain.