熊市后期一般的走法

在股市后期大家已经非常悲观因此卖压已经完全释放，有套牢的也不会再卖了。普通大众也已经学会了short，因此short percent也非常高。这时股价已经到了非常吸引人的地步。如果机构有一点的买的兴趣就会引起大的V型翻转，也就是short squeeze。当大盘上涨到一定程度，上面有大量下跌初期形成的套牢盘，同时由于上涨太快，购买力也不足，因此往往第一两次都难以突破上面重要阻力。short sequeeze后大盘会继续下跌。当下跌到上涨的33%左右时。由于前段上涨底部大量short被套牢，因此大家都伺机cover。引起第二轮的short cover。等这部分购买力完成后，就会再次下跌。时间相关D1，D2=D1/2， D3=D2/2 D4=D1。

turle rule

简单的说就是buy 20 day high 的突破, sell 20 day low的突破.
不过大部分情况是假突破,所以很多人现在是, 向上突破,就sell, 向下突破就buy,
名字叫喝海龟汤.

如果证实是真信号, 再做反向. double size 弥补前面的亏损.
因为根据统计这样的突破只有25%是真的突破。

重势不重价(by entry)

04/11/2009
重势不重价
资金分配不是一个简单的多与少的问题，而是事关全局胜负盈亏的大事。
大势一定要让它走尽，决不中途跳车。赚大钱的“贪心“
回调20%马上出场，决不抱侥幸心理。 ----明确每次“贪心“最多能付出怎样的代价。
永远不出在当时的最高点。 ---为了“贪心“大局， 不为眼前的诱惑所左右。
永远是顺势而“贪“
少赚就是赔，少赔就是赚。

1. 不能100%准确地预测行情的涨跌。

2. 更不能做进单子后让它朝自己有利的方向发展。

3. 也不能期望行情作对后一定达到期望的盈利。

我们唯一能做的就是控制我们的亏损。 止损是我们在市场的生存之本和制胜前提。
有一定比例的亏损单子是必然的，是保证永远不亏大钱和不放过大行情所必须付出的代价。
我是一个经常犯错的赢家。
99%单子止损等于不止损。必须100%坚决止损。
放开利润，不能“见利就走“。见利就走不仅违背了博大的原则，而且也丝毫没能降低你所冒的风险。
“为什么每次挣钱那么吝啬而亏钱又那么慷慨呀“
你的盈利只能说明眼前，今天，不能说明以后明天。
随时让利20%的潇洒心态而为自己赢得巨大的盈利空间。
单边势不可反做 。
可以做错，但决不让市场套牢。 最终结果不是止损出局就是获得相当的盈利。
期货操盘 稳，准， 狠。
正确的理念和技术只是你成为赢家的必要条件。
好的操盘手应该是小错不断大错不犯的智者， 不是事无巨细完美无缺的圣人。
市场走势讲不出道理，确是“事实真理“
永远是行情的涨跌影响我们的盈亏，而不是我们的愿望左右行情的涨跌。

sentiment is more important than TA

If you get the technicals right, and the sentiment, You can catch the Turns.

If your bearish or bullish, to a trader doesn't matter.

Bears must Capitulate on the tops or bulls must capitulate at the bottoms....

and that is "The Turn".

I don't want to have a "Bearish or Bullish Bias", I'm here to make money.

But sentiment wise... all the top callers have to stop talking about it, for it to happen. And that doesn't mean you, it means you should look at all the sentiment from the market, and try and figure out where we are.

The luke warm response on Cobra's post (2 reply's) shows limited acceptance to his upside notion.

If one can't call a bottom... why would you try and call a top? Trade only what you see.

But nobody will read this because.... For the most part the only analysis people want is the analysis that agrees with how they feel And that is the easiest way to lose money.


I was asked to explain why if "the Bears Covered today" Why that isn't capitulation.

Real Capitulation is when the Bears give up and become Bulls.

So here is some sentiment from today:

I quote:
"Fly on Wallstreet":

"Surrender
April 9, 2009 – 3:56 pmSold out of 85% of my SRS and FAZ positions."

Is that Capitulation? selling 85%?

I quote Cobra: "I'm still bearish, "

Have you looked at Clusterstock?

"Morgan Stanley not out of the woods yet"

From Big Picture:

"Congressional Panel: Fire Managers, Liquidate Banks"


As they say "Every Great Rally STARTS, with short Covering", so if this is short covering, it MAY be the beginning of this leg.

One might also remark how Skeptical people are about WFC. I'm not saying anything about the "Reality" of it, just that people were Skeptical. All over T.V. Today they talked about the earnings... But almost every time they would talk about how "They still weren't done with the Write downs!"

(Again, I'm not taking sides, I'm just talking about the "Emotion" of the market.)

The interesting thing is that for all the people who know "you can't catch a bottom", There are certainly a ton of people who are willing to "call a top"... For what is it 4 weeks? almost every day everyone screams "That is the top, Short the banks"

Trends "Tend to end" when the last thing in the world that you want to do, is Sell. We are still too Skeptical. Just like you have to "Buy them, when you are Crying", you also have to do the opposite on the Tops, Sell them when it's the last thing in the world you want to do. You have to think it's so crazy to sell the market right here. It should be obvious that Everything is great, and the Rally will never end.

What we need to see, besides the Bears gone(short covering/capitulation), is for them all to turn into Bulls.

At that point "Everybody is long", there is no more upside.

Also Cobra will look at the downtrend line from all the Highs since the Crash, and realize we are all Right up against it. With the market closing on it's highs, we should pull back on Monday, but once all the people who see that we have broken that trend, we will trade the Break out.(Probably)

Also if one Reads EWT, this is more like a Wave 3 with 240 Dow points on the day, Meaning we still need the momentum to slow down. Maybe a pull back on Monday, then 2 days of say 50-20 pt upsides. The market is like a truck, it does not Turn on a dime, it takes days for momentum to slow.

we should see some resistance here.... Below the Trendline. Then we will see, But One should try and measure sentiment Every day. And certainly there is a chance we will break the Trendline and find it to be a "Bull Trap"

But if all that happened was short covering from the bears,one would say this more like a middle, The true top is when EVERYBODY goes long. At a great Tradable top, everybody should be doing everything they can to go long, Not just short covering.

I look at the market like a boat, everybody running from one side to the other, but what you want to be is the first guy to turn around and go the other way, but time it so that the "Last fool" just hit the Guard Rail.

Out of Cobra's blog, we may want to see say Cobra make a bullish call, and for us to have about 15 Positive Responses in the comments. There are a Thousand Blogs out there, and you can use any number of them to Measure sentiment.

Of course I'm breaking the Heisenberg uncertainty by saying this here, but with so little comment, I'd say there is little interest in this post.

I imagine that most the Bears spent the day Under the covers, and probably covered at the close. But after a few days of bullishness, which they will disbelieve They will Finally be willing to "Go Long" at which point we can Build a tradable top.

But this trend has been Unusually Bearish, Regardless of what is on CNBC, Seems like There are tons of "disbelievers".

Let me also suggest how all the "Followers of Roubini" who are Waiting for SPX 600. If you apply any form of game theory to that Target(I know that they are going to buy at 600, so I'll buy at 610, But I know that they know I'll buy at 610, so I will be smart and buy at 620... ETC)--- 666 wasn't out of the Question, as a very real bottom.

I can add even more, bullishness as some of the Hedgefunds and Mutual funds, Spend the weekend and start to think... "maybe this was it" If Wells Fargo can make money, maybe that was the Bottom. and maybe we should put some more money to work next week. And if that works, they will keep spending, Until they are out of Cash.

Many of these people over the weekend will come to the realization that "maybe I'm wrong about my Bearishness" "maybe this isn't Great Depression II". And maybe they will "Just try and deploy some cash next week.

I'm not saying anything about the "Reality" of any of what people think, I'm not interested in having a debate about CDO's or Bank Solvency, just the sentiment. I'd suggest that you don't believe anything that people say, But try and figure out what they are doing "based on what they say". Every person who talks about how they "Feel about the market". You should look behind what they are saying and realize that what they say reflects their position in the market, Every talking head talks his market position.


To make it simple, "Besides Bears giving up(capitulating)... They may actually need to become Bulls.

Sentiment changes fast, We could wake up on monday, and see everyone "go Long". So you have to invest almost as much time Researching Sentiment, as one would spend Looking at charts.

But I'm not the Real Pro at this, If you are looking for this kind of trading. The Real Wizard is Teresa Lo.

有用的pattern

1. 当天如果gap up巨大，并且很小的回调则是明显的short squeeze。一般收盘前会有再一次的short sqeeze
2.如果下跌时缓慢的犹豫的下跌，则不是剧烈的回调。该回调是短暂的。成为牛旗。大盘顶部或7天以上的回调必须是以剧烈的下跌开始的，以套牢追高盘为目的。
3.如果一天指数出现巨量的buy put，说明要飞涨，因为一般大量put是MM买来hedge的。反之也成了。

cobra tips

Gap down，如果要填的话，一般头半个小时就拉起了，否则就几率不高了。另外，gap down，跌出昨日range的，当天不fill的几率很高。还有，注意10：30以后，如果有new intraday low，那很大几率Close < Open。嗯，当然，昨天是个例外，最后Close > Open了，但是几率放在那呢，今天又Close > Open的几率有多高？Let's see see ha。

任何gap，要填的话，10:00前就该有动作了，如果没有，那当天反转的希望就很渺茫了。最后的机会是10:30，10:30后，如果有新高/低的话，当天会是非常强的trend day，尽量不要反着做。

EMA50打回，as planned。现在要看ＳＴＯ超卖后，会不会在超卖区赖着不上去，如果是，那ｂｅａｒｉｓｈ。如果不是，那第二次冲击ＥＭＡ５０，这个，这个，ＥＭＡ５０能否保住，就不知道了哈。

如果有buy program， tick很容易在短时间内道1000以上
Also unlike yesterday, today apparently there's no buy program running only retailers are buying dip. Why? Because there's no TICK reads above 800 either

一般2:30-3:00附近的走势与真实走势通常是反的


周2小于7点的GAP FILL成功率大约80%

trading rules

overbought/oversold should be used for profit taking, not trade entry

when the trend is up, you don't trade pull back, b/c you don't know when it will start and when it will end.

The same reason, when the trend is down, you don't trade bounce.

The traders, who wish to time the market on both sides, often get crashed by the surprsing strong trending move while waiting for a small countertrend gain.