20 rules

Want to trade successfully? Just choose the good positions and avoid the bad ones. Poor trade selection takes a heavy toll as it bleeds your confidence and wallet. You face many crossroads during each market day. Without a system of discipline for your decision-making, impulse and emotion will undermine skills as you chase the wrong stocks at the worst times.

Many short-term players view trading as a form of gambling. Without planning or discipline, they throw money at the market. The occasional big score reinforces this easy money attitude but sets them up for ultimate failure. Without defensive rules, insiders easily feed off these losers and send them off to other hobbies.

Technical Analysis teaches traders to execute positions based on numbers, time and volume.This discipline forces traders to distance themselves from reckless gambling behavior. Through detached execution and solid risk management, short-term trading finally "works".

Markets echo similar patterns over and over again. The science of trend allows you to build systematic rules to play these repeating formations and avoid the chase:

1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You're not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.

2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There's always a crowd that missed the first boat.

3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they're all just waiting to jump in the pool.

4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.

5. Don't buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.

6. Don't chase momentum if you can't find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it's a long way to the door, you're in big trouble.

7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don't. The old traders' wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.

8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.

9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don't be a hero. Go with the money flow.

10. If you have to look, it isn't there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts.

11. Sell the second high, buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks, the first test of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the break on the third or fourth try.

12. The trend is your friend in the last hour. As volume cranks up at 3:00pm don't expect anyone to change the channel.

13. Avoid the open. They see YOU coming sucker

14. 1-2-3-Drop-Up. Look for downtrends to reverse after a top, two lower highs and a double bottom.

15. Bulls live above the 200 day, bears live below. Sellers eat up rallies below this key moving average line and buyers to come to the rescue above it.

16. Price has memory. What did price do the last time it hit a certain level? Chances are it will do it again.

17. Big volume kills moves. Climax blow-offs take both buyers and sellers out of the market and lead to sideways action.

18. Trends never turn on a dime. Reversals build slowly. The first sharp dip always finds buyers and the first sharp rise always finds sellers.

19. Bottoms take longer to form than tops. Fear acts more quickly than greed and causes stocks to drop from their own weight.

20. Beat the crowd in and out the door. You have to take their money before they take yours, period.

Dave 对Never turn a winning trade to a loss 的理解

Never turn a winning trade to a loss

如果经过考虑的TRADE, 进去就赚钱的可能性还是蛮大的. 但是就一直赚钱吗? 要跌到快亏损的时候就卖? 如果卖了又大幅度上涨? 怎么办? 这些事情都可能在一天内就发生. 做过FUTURE的人都知道, 你放STOP的话, 被STOP出去的可能性是非常大的. 比如你20.6买入股票, 涨到20.7了, 然后跌到20.61了, 根据这个原则就该20.61卖了. 很可能你20.61卖了后就开始涨, 大涨了. 而且如果你仓位大点的话, 你20.61开始卖, 可能就给卖到20.5了. 那么你从20.65就开始卖?

我认为, 股市上从来没有啥NEVER NEVER的事情, 这么说本身就有问题. 即使非常赞成者如大波之流, 也不是说一快要亏损就CUT掉. 很多时候他也等到关盘.

应该说, 只有你有非常可观的PROFIT的时候, 才有这个LUXURY去not turn a winning tyrade to a loss. 不然的话, 可能大部分都交手续费去啦.

一种抢反弹方法，也适合判断大盘底部

那什么时候才算是oversold 呢？一般来说，我希望股票越惨越好，最好是惨不忍睹，那就行了．什么叫惨不忍睹，就是这是股票，大跌三天，每天都是大跌，而且，三天能跌掉２０％，要使更多的话，那就更好了．这个时候，也就是第四天，开盘的时候非常重要．第一种情况，要使这支股票gap down¸ 我的上帝，这就是一个杰作，我会奋不顾身的跳进去，因为这个时候的risk/reward是最佳比例，我就算亏，我也不会是大亏，除非是bill gates 那他所有的钱来砸，一般来说，这个时候就卖得人就基本上差不多了．但是记住，这是抢反弹，所以，抢了就要跑，最多放上一天，就足够了．别指望着他能弹过高，不然就有JesseLivermore这样的人来宰你．第二种情况，就是高开，然后最后一群seller进入，但是这个时候，你可以感觉到这时的 seller 就是强弩之末了．这个strategy, 我掌握得不好，每次还是要跟着trainer做才行，大家好好琢磨琢磨，据说这个情况比第一个更好赚钱

一种抢反弹方法，也适合判断大盘底部

那什么时候才算是oversold 呢？一般来说，我希望股票越惨越好，最好是惨不忍睹，那就行了．什么叫惨不忍睹，就是这是股票，大跌三天，每天都是大跌，而且，三天能跌掉２０％，要使更多的话，那就更好了．这个时候，也就是第四天，开盘的时候非常重要．第一种情况，要使这支股票gap down¸ 我的上帝，这就是一个杰作，我会奋不顾身的跳进去，因为这个时候的risk/reward是最佳比例，我就算亏，我也不会是大亏，除非是bill gates 那他所有的钱来砸，一般来说，这个时候就卖得人就基本上差不多了．但是记住，这是抢反弹，所以，抢了就要跑，最多放上一天，就足够了．别指望着他能弹过高，不然就有JesseLivermore这样的人来宰你．第二种情况，就是高开，然后最后一群seller进入，但是这个时候，你可以感觉到这时的 seller 就是强弩之末了．这个strategy, 我掌握得不好，每次还是要跟着trainer做才行，大家好好琢磨琢磨，据说这个情况比第一个更好赚钱

dow 趋势定义

"截短亏损，让利润奔跑”
如何做到？ 顺势而为。如何顺势？ 这里就牵涉到了趋势的定义
在一定的时间框架内，一系列的更高的高和更高的低构成上升趋势。

一系列的更低的低和更低的高构成下降趋势。

根据道氏理论，市场以趋势的方式发展，趋势以牛市和熊市的方式循环发展，牛市熊市又
以三重运动原理的方式发展。 三重运动：规律很强的基本运动，骗人的次级运动和诱人的
日常波动。

在多重时间框架下，用趋势线和趋势通道线构建道氏理论模型来分解出基本运动，次级运动和日常波动，辨别
出当前市场处于牛市还是熊市以及价格所处的位置。这里的位置指牛市第一期，第二期和第三期，熊市第一期，第二期和第三期。

判断出牛市第一期和熊市第三期以及熊市第三期和牛市第一期则是问题的关键。

cobra 市场结构的观点

No，不是说股市被人操纵。而是由米国股市的结构决定的，占市场1%的资金就可以在短期内玩弄大盘。你知道，大部分mutual fund，还有投资公司其实是被动的，buy and hold，不是每天都有动作，因此就算是他们占了市场的绝大份额，他们在短期内对股市的波动影响不大，除非他们决定进场。那剩下的就是些trading资金，他们就有可能在短时间内造成大盘的局部上下波动牟利。所以其实是有MM的，只不过，这些MM不是market maker，market maker其实并不怎么做市，也没法做了，好多电子交易了现在。好，如果你同意以上的说法的话，那剩下的trading资金就是主力。而这部分资金如何同步，其实是跟我们一样的，看图，也因此conventional智慧就管用了。好，let's say，你是某个大资金trader，你看牛，那我问你，你现在会进场吗？显然，你也在等恐慌性抛盘后进场，其他资金的想法也是一样的，因此你们其实就达成了默契。嗯，你说你是聪明的资金，你这次就跟别人不一样？老大，单打独斗，那可是有风险的哈，别的资金并不是你的朋友，如果你抢先动手，别的资金决定逮你这条大鱼怎么办？因此，其实大家都在看，到底前，会有试探性的动作，如果没人响应，该动作会马上收回，这就是我们经常会看到的恐慌性下跌后会有一天收盘前突然拉起，结果收盘的时候又掉下来的现象，这是试探性的失败，要过几天再试探了。

swing trade 反弹

本来想写一篇关于新手如何swing trade 反弹的文章，但很忙。所以就to make long story short。一般来说一次大的pull back 后都会反弹，(我不是说这次pull back 己纪完了, 可能这是1,2,3 reversal 中的2, rebound) 而在pull back 的过程，有些在up trend 中的stock会跌到50ma, or 200ma上。这些stocks primary trend 一定一定是uptrend!!! 这些stocks 就成为"rebound swing trade candidate". (believe or not, these stock will show up on fund manager screen, too) 找到你认为comfortable to trade 的stock, 一定要用15mins and 60mins chart to verify entry point。market condition 一定是在rebound phase。