有太多的人买涨的话，因为人们都有快速取利的愿望，大盘每涨一点就有大量卖压，尤其熊市中，加上上面套牢盘的卖压，因此熊市中太小的put call ratio 几乎100%的都是短期顶部。
反之如果过于bearish的情况下，大家都有快速cover的倾向。如果大盘在short cover后，仍跌不下去，说明割肉完毕。大盘会短期上涨。
但是注意，大盘太bullish和太bearish并不是马上转势的充分条件，如果超买超卖，如果过于bullish，往往大盘还要向上强烈上涨一段，引发套利行为而转势，同理如果过于bearish，一般会有gap down或free fall引发short cover，从而转势。
Monday, December 29, 2008
为什么大跌大涨是时要锁定利润
在short股票时，如果大盘出现free fall，也就是过于快速下跌的情况要，随时准备cover，一个正常的下跌必须是缓慢的。
1. 如果是上涨过程中的free fall，很可能是大户收集筹码的一种方法，而不是真正的下跌，真正大户出货，会是缓慢下跌，不让人们产生恐慌。只有大户出货完毕，也就是大盘横了一段时间后才会gap down，开始下跌过程。
2.下跌一段时间后的free fall，说明有大量散户割肉，或magin call，因为资金的卖不会是 free fall，会是有秩序的撤退。因此上面卖压大量释放，同时大量shorter开始锁定利润，short cover会将大盘托到很高的底部，在上面重要阻力上再次short。
同理大涨是由于人们的恐慌购买或是short cover因此的。也要随时锁定利润。
1. 如果是上涨过程中的free fall，很可能是大户收集筹码的一种方法，而不是真正的下跌，真正大户出货，会是缓慢下跌，不让人们产生恐慌。只有大户出货完毕，也就是大盘横了一段时间后才会gap down，开始下跌过程。
2.下跌一段时间后的free fall，说明有大量散户割肉，或magin call，因为资金的卖不会是 free fall，会是有秩序的撤退。因此上面卖压大量释放，同时大量shorter开始锁定利润，short cover会将大盘托到很高的底部，在上面重要阻力上再次short。
同理大涨是由于人们的恐慌购买或是short cover因此的。也要随时锁定利润。
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
看庄家出货
From 5min chart, I can see long red bar every time the vol spikes. -> large order hit ask. -> MM gets out
支撑阻力
有关顶和底预测的几句废话COPY到这, 以后来复习...
对商品来说，他们的顶和低的表现是同股票不同的
1.一般 顶来的快,去的也快, 顶一般范围较窄, 无历史及成本参考, 难预测准;
2.一般 底来的慢,去的也慢, 底一般范围较宽, 有历史及成本参考, 易预测准.
石油
这就是为何5月分顶的预测值有很多不同数据, 而且没有一个很准的.
但这次底的预测值却惊人的一致...我的TARGET2 30-25是很早就提出的...
TARGET1 是50, 已达到...
in bull market, support line works very good, because every body wants to buy on dip;
in bear market, resistance line works very good, because everybody wants to sell on rally;
for rest case, hard to say...
牛市向上划准;
熊市向下划准;
猪市喳画都不准.
牛市只上画;
熊市只下画;
猪市不瞎画.
对商品来说，他们的顶和低的表现是同股票不同的
1.一般 顶来的快,去的也快, 顶一般范围较窄, 无历史及成本参考, 难预测准;
2.一般 底来的慢,去的也慢, 底一般范围较宽, 有历史及成本参考, 易预测准.
石油
这就是为何5月分顶的预测值有很多不同数据, 而且没有一个很准的.
但这次底的预测值却惊人的一致...我的TARGET2 30-25是很早就提出的...
TARGET1 是50, 已达到...
in bull market, support line works very good, because every body wants to buy on dip;
in bear market, resistance line works very good, because everybody wants to sell on rally;
for rest case, hard to say...
牛市向上划准;
熊市向下划准;
猪市喳画都不准.
牛市只上画;
熊市只下画;
猪市不瞎画.
大P看盘的方法
看看图中的的5个阶段：
1：放量突破，很好！（俄前天的帖子里说了）
2：缩量上涨，牛疲。
3：2和3之间的pullback是正常的，但是3没test 2的高点，而是横爬，说明牛牛很弱，信心不足。
4：两波下跌，逐波放量（两个红箭头）
5：Buy-dip的来了（蓝箭头），量不小但涨幅太小，说明有人偷着卖。
所以，明天涨不过90.5就很bearish。
Thursday, December 18, 2008
BOND EQUITY COMMODITY 的循环
“ TLT is an ETF with underlying as Lehman US Treasury 20-30year index. As of today close, the weighted average coupon is 5.014%, weighted average maturity is about 25.5 years, weighted avg yield is 3.38%, weighted avg duration is about 15+ years.
Based on the above info and calibrate with TLT today close at 109.40, we can get the 'theoretic' NAV for TLT corresponding to different yield. So if yield drops to 0 (impossible for 30yr treasury), TLT can get as high as 195. More realistically, if yield drops to 2.0-2.5% as Japan's 30yr treasury does, TLT can spike to 126-136. ”
这位筒子指出，如果 25-30 年的美国国债收益跌到零， TLT 的价格是 195 美元，这也是 TLT 可能达到的最高的价格了。如果 25-30 年的美国国债收益跌到 2.0-2.5% ， TLT 的价格将会介乎于 126-136 。
不过我是一个懒人，所以我从网上找了一个债券收益的计算器，连接如下 http://bond.jrj.com.cn//Tools/Calc1.asp 有空的时候可以自己上去试试计算现价TLT对应的到期收益率是多少。
一般认为，bond market, equity market, commodity market三者的牛市按次序出现，先bond，再equity，最后commodity。这个结论应该是得到多年检验的。最近的情形也符合这个。 equity market于2007年秋peak，commodity market在2008年夏peak，现在的bond market处于大牛市（意味着利率底）。
T-bond likes bubble now. but when it will burst nobody knows. could be like 10 year. It is very hard to have equity bull market while T-bond is in bubble stage. and equally difficult when T-bond is in post-bubble crash stage. the best environment for equity is when T-bond range bound at a higher level after finishing its ultimate crash.
Based on the above info and calibrate with TLT today close at 109.40, we can get the 'theoretic' NAV for TLT corresponding to different yield. So if yield drops to 0 (impossible for 30yr treasury), TLT can get as high as 195. More realistically, if yield drops to 2.0-2.5% as Japan's 30yr treasury does, TLT can spike to 126-136. ”
这位筒子指出，如果 25-30 年的美国国债收益跌到零， TLT 的价格是 195 美元，这也是 TLT 可能达到的最高的价格了。如果 25-30 年的美国国债收益跌到 2.0-2.5% ， TLT 的价格将会介乎于 126-136 。
不过我是一个懒人，所以我从网上找了一个债券收益的计算器，连接如下 http://bond.jrj.com.cn//Tools/Calc1.asp 有空的时候可以自己上去试试计算现价TLT对应的到期收益率是多少。
一般认为，bond market, equity market, commodity market三者的牛市按次序出现，先bond，再equity，最后commodity。这个结论应该是得到多年检验的。最近的情形也符合这个。 equity market于2007年秋peak，commodity market在2008年夏peak，现在的bond market处于大牛市（意味着利率底）。
T-bond likes bubble now. but when it will burst nobody knows. could be like 10 year. It is very hard to have equity bull market while T-bond is in bubble stage. and equally difficult when T-bond is in post-bubble crash stage. the best environment for equity is when T-bond range bound at a higher level after finishing its ultimate crash.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
trading firm
有很多firms招没有经验的traders，提供培训，不收费，真钱操作，赔钱算老板的。
在加拿大的有swift trade, title trading, and so on.
在美国的可以去这个网站http://www.tradersnarrative.com/list-of-proprietary-trading-firms-735.html， 在那些公司中找符合以上条件的firm。
昨天说交钱的傻，就是这个原因。
我就是swift trade 培训出来， 希望这些信息对大家有用。
在加拿大的有swift trade, title trading, and so on.
在美国的可以去这个网站http://www.tradersnarrative.com/list-of-proprietary-trading-firms-735.html， 在那些公司中找符合以上条件的firm。
昨天说交钱的傻，就是这个原因。
我就是swift trade 培训出来， 希望这些信息对大家有用。
a good post about vol
Let me answer what is TA. My 2 cents comment may or may not make any sense to you.
TA is a windsock. Not a crystal ball - Who has a one? Please let me know.
TA will help you to see where the support and where the resistance is. So you can profit from this room during intraday trading. I like TA. In chart, I believe.
When you read the chart, please do not forget the volume. The volume represents the strength and energy of the bar of that day. So far, I do not see any significient volume to support a breakup of the resistance.
Lot of people do not understand what is resistance? Resistance is selling pressure. For example, if you are a retail investor, you bought SPY at 90$, so when the buyers push the price near the price you bought, and if you do not see a good future of this SPY, then you will likely sell it with small loss or break even. So the resistance for this case would be the previous high.
You can see that if SPY goes up on next Monday, it has to break intensive selling presure becuase the guys who bought SPY above 89$, would love to sell the stocks and get away.
In the mean time, Short seller would like to take this opportunity to sell you more shares so as to take the share price to a lower level to benifit from it.
This kind of thinking is normal for every investor. When you are trapped at higher price for days, the first thing you want to do is getting out. It is not TA, right? it is human nature. So when you look at the bar, you should ask, why the price bar is decending, why it has a lower high every day? Because investor has no reason to buy the stock. So for the share holders, they have no way to get out without loss.
Of course, if there is a good News during weekend, this certainly will give buyers confidence and the good wish could drive them to buy stocks or hold thier stocks. Then the market would go higher.
But without these good news, I do not see any reason why buyers would like to buy SPY. If there is no buyer, how can the price be pushed up to higher level?
This is how I read the chart.
In chart, I believe. Volume tells.
TA is a windsock. Not a crystal ball - Who has a one? Please let me know.
TA will help you to see where the support and where the resistance is. So you can profit from this room during intraday trading. I like TA. In chart, I believe.
When you read the chart, please do not forget the volume. The volume represents the strength and energy of the bar of that day. So far, I do not see any significient volume to support a breakup of the resistance.
Lot of people do not understand what is resistance? Resistance is selling pressure. For example, if you are a retail investor, you bought SPY at 90$, so when the buyers push the price near the price you bought, and if you do not see a good future of this SPY, then you will likely sell it with small loss or break even. So the resistance for this case would be the previous high.
You can see that if SPY goes up on next Monday, it has to break intensive selling presure becuase the guys who bought SPY above 89$, would love to sell the stocks and get away.
In the mean time, Short seller would like to take this opportunity to sell you more shares so as to take the share price to a lower level to benifit from it.
This kind of thinking is normal for every investor. When you are trapped at higher price for days, the first thing you want to do is getting out. It is not TA, right? it is human nature. So when you look at the bar, you should ask, why the price bar is decending, why it has a lower high every day? Because investor has no reason to buy the stock. So for the share holders, they have no way to get out without loss.
Of course, if there is a good News during weekend, this certainly will give buyers confidence and the good wish could drive them to buy stocks or hold thier stocks. Then the market would go higher.
But without these good news, I do not see any reason why buyers would like to buy SPY. If there is no buyer, how can the price be pushed up to higher level?
This is how I read the chart.
In chart, I believe. Volume tells.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
wave 4 的操作
wave 4，是经过wave3 大跌后的整理形态。往往成剧烈的震荡震荡过程。因为上面大量的套牢盘，比较安全的操作是逢高就short。因为它没有趋势，最好以向上average up的方式 short。以下两种情况是建short仓的时间：
1. 剧烈上涨
2. 连续上涨一周左右
1. 剧烈上涨
2. 连续上涨一周左右
Friday, December 5, 2008
qqq的trading system
EMA16 cross above EMA34, long, exit at eod EMA16 cross below EMA34, short, exit at eod The above result does not include commission. Total commissions are about $3-5k for ~240 trades
15min chart，notice：exit at EOD： end of day
15min chart，notice：exit at EOD： end of day
Monday, December 1, 2008
some tips
I
1. when bond mkt(TLT) and equity mkt moves in the same direction in a big way, the latter is most likely a lier.
2.If during the long holidays such as Thanksgiving, X-mas, labor days...the market kept rising, you have to sell right before the holiday over no matter what, this is one of the important rules you have to follow as a good trader!!!!
The reason? will discuss later if enough people are interested in it.
Historical data shows that 3 holidays (memorial day, labor day & thxgiving) are most likely to have a rally during the year.
But the sell off afterwards would be mostly certain as well. On average, the rally should give back 2/3 in the following days.
II
TICK close -1000以下的话，似乎第二天反弹的几率很大，当然第二天往往都会先有很大的跌幅，盘中反转.注意：TICK and NYADV相似，取一个就可以了
III
1. 大盘大跌，Financial 涨，做多
2.大盘大涨， Financial 跌，做空
3.NASDAQ大涨，Intel 跌，做空
4.nasdaq大跌，Intel涨，做多。
III
History told me that in the past century a new bull market HAS NEVER BEGUN IN NOV.
V
没有finical 支撑的commodities反弹都是短命的。
VI
下跌过程出量前在 15m 200SMA 做猪市是弱势的表现，因为为强势回调的出量下跌往往会在这条线找到支撑，后市如果爆量阴线，牛牛就少了一个筹码。。。
VII
ISEE put call
当put call量出现巨变时，如果indices量变的大，而equities量变得小，一般是庄家的布局。
因为一般散户只交易quities，而大庄才交易indices. 譬如indices出现大量put，则下跌的可能型比较大。
VIII
: 今天可能出现自2007年来的第10次 油、股、金、债、元齐升！目前只有债市是小红盘。还大声说一句，以前的9次都是以第二天大跌来结束的。
1. when bond mkt(TLT) and equity mkt moves in the same direction in a big way, the latter is most likely a lier.
2.If during the long holidays such as Thanksgiving, X-mas, labor days...the market kept rising, you have to sell right before the holiday over no matter what, this is one of the important rules you have to follow as a good trader!!!!
The reason? will discuss later if enough people are interested in it.
Historical data shows that 3 holidays (memorial day, labor day & thxgiving) are most likely to have a rally during the year.
But the sell off afterwards would be mostly certain as well. On average, the rally should give back 2/3 in the following days.
II
TICK close -1000以下的话，似乎第二天反弹的几率很大，当然第二天往往都会先有很大的跌幅，盘中反转.注意：TICK and NYADV相似，取一个就可以了
III
1. 大盘大跌，Financial 涨，做多
2.大盘大涨， Financial 跌，做空
3.NASDAQ大涨，Intel 跌，做空
4.nasdaq大跌，Intel涨，做多。
III
History told me that in the past century a new bull market HAS NEVER BEGUN IN NOV.
V
没有finical 支撑的commodities反弹都是短命的。
VI
下跌过程出量前在 15m 200SMA 做猪市是弱势的表现，因为为强势回调的出量下跌往往会在这条线找到支撑，后市如果爆量阴线，牛牛就少了一个筹码。。。
VII
ISEE put call
当put call量出现巨变时，如果indices量变的大，而equities量变得小，一般是庄家的布局。
因为一般散户只交易quities，而大庄才交易indices. 譬如indices出现大量put，则下跌的可能型比较大。
VIII
: 今天可能出现自2007年来的第10次 油、股、金、债、元齐升！目前只有债市是小红盘。还大声说一句，以前的9次都是以第二天大跌来结束的。
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