“ TLT is an ETF with underlying as Lehman US Treasury 20-30year index. As of today close, the weighted average coupon is 5.014%, weighted average maturity is about 25.5 years, weighted avg yield is 3.38%, weighted avg duration is about 15+ years.
Based on the above info and calibrate with TLT today close at 109.40, we can get the 'theoretic' NAV for TLT corresponding to different yield. So if yield drops to 0 (impossible for 30yr treasury), TLT can get as high as 195. More realistically, if yield drops to 2.0-2.5% as Japan's 30yr treasury does, TLT can spike to 126-136. ”
这位筒子指出，如果 25-30 年的美国国债收益跌到零， TLT 的价格是 195 美元，这也是 TLT 可能达到的最高的价格了。如果 25-30 年的美国国债收益跌到 2.0-2.5% ， TLT 的价格将会介乎于 126-136 。
不过我是一个懒人，所以我从网上找了一个债券收益的计算器，连接如下 http://bond.jrj.com.cn//Tools/Calc1.asp 有空的时候可以自己上去试试计算现价TLT对应的到期收益率是多少。
一般认为，bond market, equity market, commodity market三者的牛市按次序出现，先bond，再equity，最后commodity。这个结论应该是得到多年检验的。最近的情形也符合这个。 equity market于2007年秋peak，commodity market在2008年夏peak，现在的bond market处于大牛市（意味着利率底）。
T-bond likes bubble now. but when it will burst nobody knows. could be like 10 year. It is very hard to have equity bull market while T-bond is in bubble stage. and equally difficult when T-bond is in post-bubble crash stage. the best environment for equity is when T-bond range bound at a higher level after finishing its ultimate crash.
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