Monday, December 1, 2008

some tips

I
1. when bond mkt(TLT) and equity mkt moves in the same direction in a big way, the latter is most likely a lier.
2.If during the long holidays such as Thanksgiving, X-mas, labor days...the market kept rising, you have to sell right before the holiday over no matter what, this is one of the important rules you have to follow as a good trader!!!!
The reason? will discuss later if enough people are interested in it.

Historical data shows that 3 holidays (memorial day, labor day & thxgiving) are most likely to have a rally during the year.

But the sell off afterwards would be mostly certain as well. On average, the rally should give back 2/3 in the following days.

II
TICK close -1000以下的话,似乎第二天反弹的几率很大,当然第二天往往都会先有很大的跌幅,盘中反转.注意:TICK and NYADV相似,取一个就可以了

III
1. 大盘大跌,Financial 涨,做多
2.大盘大涨, Financial 跌,做空
3.NASDAQ大涨,Intel 跌,做空
4.nasdaq大跌,Intel涨,做多。

III
History told me that in the past century a new bull market HAS NEVER BEGUN IN NOV.
V
没有finical 支撑的commodities反弹都是短命的。
VI
下跌过程出量前在 15m 200SMA 做猪市是弱势的表现,因为为强势回调的出量下跌往往会在这条线找到支撑,后市如果爆量阴线,牛牛就少了一个筹码。。。
VII
ISEE put call
当put call量出现巨变时,如果indices量变的大,而equities量变得小,一般是庄家的布局。
因为一般散户只交易quities,而大庄才交易indices. 譬如indices出现大量put,则下跌的可能型比较大。
VIII
: 今天可能出现自2007年来的第10次 油、股、金、债、元齐升!目前只有债市是小红盘。还大声说一句,以前的9次都是以第二天大跌来结束的。

1 comment:

corner said...

about UYG/USO selling near term call, I still do not understand. If they rebound in short term, it will loss money depending on reduction of the volatility.