maxpain 对大盘走势的猜测

最近两天的current pain,决定当天的走势。 但如果有大的跌幅，或上涨，则不会meet这个currentpain. 因此put call的反应不会这么块。

maxpain=90 决定教长期的走势
currentpain(2 day) close price
1.6 93 93
1.7 93 90
1.8 91 91
1.9 89 89 (周五大部分option会了解，因此应该更加有效)
1.12 89
1-15
Stock market is essentially a zero-sum game. With more players in the game, a balance point must be reached so that technically the most effective players are hurt the least.

BTW, "max pain" is only a correct concept which is defined by option distributions, not the value you see from
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

That value is not right. You cannot put the entire complex distribution, which is more complex than most vectors, into a simple scalar value.

The "max-pain" of SPY for Jan 2009 is currently about 88 according to option distribution (any thing between 86 and 89 is also acceptable), not 90 according to the website.